13 replies to this topic

[Phil Hackett]

I thought the article about rare earths, the 2009 Chinese embargo, and the repercussions of that action created would be of interest to the membership here on Slotblog. If the admins wish to move to elsewhere more relevant, please do so...

Some time ago there was a discussion here in the Slotblog forums about braid and the price of copper. The link below also discusses a material used in our little cars, tablet computers, optics, flat screen TVs, and more. Most of the RE (Rare Earth) market is controlled by the Chinese and the article describes some serious problems some big companies have had in obtaining RE metals at reasonable prices.

Rare Earth, Big Headache

[Cheater]

Phil,

Since this topic isn't directly related to slot cars, and is technical in nature, I did choose to move the thread.

This is an issue I have been aware of for some time and my moving it should by no means be construed as an effort to hide or soft-pedal it. We're going to have to deal with this problem, one way or another.

[TSR]

Yes, I have been very much aware of this as my former company, Topline, Inc., used to buy 25,000 Neodymium magnets each year for the past ten years for various applications from China. Small quantities but the price has shot up from 25 cents to almost 2 dollars a magnet...

[Gator Bob]

We're screwed.

[TSR]

Not really, the USA has plenty of cobalt and other rare earth minerals, but China was a lot cheaper. Now they will price themselves out of the market as soon as the US mines will be back on line.

In fact, the Chinese are playing a dangerous game now, and it will bite them bad in very few years from now.

Expect them to fall off their pedestal, sooner than you think.

[Duffy]

Soooo... are they called "Neodollarum" now?

The big breaking story this week is the start-up for mining asteroids.

It's being pooh-poohed by the Cretin Press, and it's true the investment will be incredible, but if we think in terms of buying hardware that's on the shelf thereafter, it's nothing but gravy once it's developed - think Project Apollo, and if you don't believe me, stop staring at this screen; and, for that matter, never do up your kids' Velcro sneakers again, or go jogging in that Thinsulate/Gore-Tex shell.

This is the first glimmer of hope I've seen in dunno-how-long. Half a century hence, we may actually have a chance of getting pure rare metals and more from out on the right end of the gravity well, smelting and refining with solar power instead of using petroleum (which we'll save for proper stuff, like making more Lexan bodies) and by the way not coughing more pollutants into our atmosphere in the process; and then, it's just a gentle push to send 'em on their leisurely way down into the Inner System, to our waiting hands. Our Mileage May Vary, but rest assured it'll be negligible.

And all we'll have to worry about is finding an acceptable hunk of open land in which to land our little payloads, presumably at well-sub-meteoric velocities. I just hope I'm around to advocate on Facebook for the spectacularly-colorful demise of the odd gila monster or two, for the Greater Good.

Duffy

[TSR]

I am sure that the "private industry" in question has a few dozen billions to invest in used Atlas rockets and robotized machinery to dig into the asteroids surface in search of nickel and platinum... and get it back to earth without damage.

Good luck on that.

Total pipe dreams at this time. Maybe in 50 years.

[idare2bdul]

We went from the wright Brothers first flight to a moon landing in 66 years. We already are mining samples on Mars and use robotic docking to replenish the space station.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it in my lifetime if it looks to have profit in it.

[TSR]

Mike,

A simple question of cost. Of course it can be done. But at what cost? When the US government decided to go to the moon, it was a political move against the USSR. Cost was no object.

Now after the US government has effectively shed its involvement in space exploration (which is just as well since they did not do such a great job of it in the past 25 years), reality sets in, the taxpayer is no longer picking the tab. So wealthy private entrepreneurs decide to go get some expensive metals off a space rock. At what cost per pound? It is a pipe dream at this time, and they are going to find out very quickly.

First, an economic vehicle should leave the ground horizontally, not vertically. As long as they think "vertical", add about ten zeros to the equation.

Second, the cost of each pound of weight goes cubic as you add one. So far, remote dirt diggers such as used on Mars (and they did not come back) are made of the lightest material on earth and still require a 50-ton rocket at a cost of 2 billion a shot. Theoretically, a vehicle could be made to bring a few pounds of rock back to a "mother ship" orbiting a planet or a rock, if you add another billion or so.

Makes the pound of nickel a bit expensive, don't you think?

[Duffy]

That's thinking too small; and very probably thinking too true.

If we start everything from elevation zero, we deal with getting every pound up out of the gravity well - of course it's expensive. The key is, getting the tooling into low orbit, where we can build to get to high orbit, Lagrange points, and beyond - where we don't have to deal with using tonnes just to lift pounds any more. If we can get the tooling up, we can mine, refine, and procure all the rest we need to build with out there. There's a point where it becomes practical to do away with a Terra-based space program entirely, if need be - well, I'm spinning off more ideas from that, but there's no point in mucking up the thread.

It won't happen. We won't pay for it. We can't afford our two-drink lunch as it is - anybody who thinks different just isn't running the numbers out to their end - and there aren't enough with both vision and resources to make it work.

But I can wish.

[Rick]

Duffy, going over the top on Nick at Nite?...

[TSR]

I think that in a country with a $15 trillion debt to its citizens and some other countries, he is simply being realistic. There is no more money for such projects, because the few companies still making any are selling two-dimensional objects to two-dimensional people, and that cannot last too long as far as bringing two meals a day on the tables of 320 million people.

[Rick]

WTG P, I knew you could squeeze in a political slur somewhere................

[TSR]

Anyone who sees a "political slur" when reading the post above, needs to have his head examined.