15 replies to this topic

[The Number of]

Scarce Vintage Cox 1/24 Chaparral 2E Mag Frame Slot Car Kit MIB
 
 All the proof you need that someone has more $ than sense.

[NY Nick]

How true.

If I had that kind of money to burn I would have bidded on it.

Well, what can I say... no sense. no feeling.

[Bill from NH]

A guy had it won using his bid stealing program with 4 sec. remaining in the auction, only to loose it to another's bid stealing program 2 sec. later. The one of these last week on eBay for $7,700 didn't get any bids, but I expect to see it relisted at some point.     

[Mbloes]

I keep wondering if it's just the same kit making the rounds.

[NY Nick]

How many were made and still in the box?

[Dave Fiedler]

As the legend goes, approximately fifteen years ago, a doctor on the east coast paid $13,500.00 for one of these.

 

I also understand this is the most ever paid for a slot car.

[MattD]

It was an architect in TX that paid $13,500. He called me the next day really excited to have a super MIB kit. He thought he had made a great "investment". I didn't point out to him that he was willing to pay more than anybody else in the world that watched that auction and he only had one competitor above $8,000. Not sure how you call that an investment.  

 

I congratulated him and sold him my loose in the box un-assembled mag 2E kit, so he would have one to build without sacrificing a MIB kit. I am happy that I sold most of the bigger dollar cars and kits I had ten-fifteen years ago. That was about the peak of the vintage slot car market.  

 

This stuff is not an investment, it's a fun hobby and worth some money, but that is all it is.

[Mbloes]

You're right, Matt. Fifteen-twenty years from now when nobody knows what a slot car from the '60s is, what is this stuff going to be worth?

 

Buy what you enjoy looking at or fiddling with or displaying - but don't buy it thinking that the price will go up in the next twenty years (we'll all be dead anyway).

 

Of course, if it's worth $5,000 to you to go into your closet periodically and take it off the shelf and look at it while sipping on some scotch, knock yourself out.

[TSR]

So Bill Fulmer, how much do you think that this formerly rare, now only scarce, kit should have sold for? 

The 27 bids show 21 separate bidders bringing the price up to what is today, standard market value for this kit.

Why have the values dropped since 1999 when prices were at their peak? Because of the internet factor. Slot cars are not the only product where prices went down as much as 50%; virtually all other collectibles did so, because so many suddenly came up for air, something that was previously impossible. When the architect in Texas paid $12K in 2001 (not $13.5K) for a 2E "Mag" kit, only a few were known to exist intact. Maybe a half-dozen. Now, more than three dozen have surfaced, and that reduced the prices. Normal.

But now, the good and rare items, when they come up, bring more than ever, while the common fare is leveling even more. Supply meets demand.

Collectible prices fluctuate, up and down, but rarity is a factor. When rarity becomes merely scarcity, prices fall. It has not much to do with the age of collectors since a good majority of slot car collectors today were barely born if at all when these items were produced.

As a tin toy collector, I saw the same happening in that field, going in perfect parallel with slot cars. It is not unique, it is a worldwide phenomenon, and it will be only a matter of time before the market will strengthen itself, because the more the internet reaches new people, the more there will be a demand for a supply that cannot grow much more now. Can't make too many more of them Cox kits, can you?

As an example, the price of Chinese tinplate toys produced in the early 1970s went up five times in the past five years, because of new demand from... China. From young Chinese. 

[Dave Fiedler]

Thank you for your insight, Philippe.

[Cheater]

Fifteen-twenty years from now when nobody knows what a slot car from the '60s is, what is this stuff going to be worth?

IMO this commonly-held belief is at odds with what has happened (and is happening) in other collectible markets.

Yes, there is a generational-based shift in demand in many collectible markets, but I can't think of a single instance where the demand has dropped to near zero.

One example is cars from 1900 to 1915. There's hardly anyone alive today who was around when these cars were produced, or who remembers them from their childhood, yet the market for such cars, even not very scarce ones like Model T Fords, hasn't softened much at all.

As PdL says, the rare material holds its value at the very least. And is is a mistake to dismiss slot cars as mere toys and thus lacking in inherent value. Take a look at the quality toys from the late 19th and early 20th century to see what the value of those toys is today. Emphasis on the adjective "quality".

[The Number of]

Like all collectible markets the old proverb that a fool and his money are soon parted still has a lot of truth involved with it.

[MattD]

Being firmly in the old car hobby for 45 years, I will argue that older, common cars such as Fords have seen values fall as the age of collectors increases. Model Ts and As have had this happen. Guys that had these cars when they were young make up the "majority" of owners. As they die off or quit, there are not the same numbers of people to replace them. If you are in the old car hobby and regularly attend major swap meets, you will not that 30 years ago Model T parts were abundant, today they are MIA, same is happening to Model A parts. Next phase we saw was an abundance of Mustang and '50s era parts, now these are getting smaller and muscle car parts are showing up. I believe this is due to the fact that the buyers are not looking for these parts.
 
I kid my buddies that cars like my '34 Vicky will be available in 10-15 years for 8-10 grand, since the number of potential buyers will fall by about 50%. That's OK, that is the ebb and flow of collectible hobbies. Ask the Lionel train guys, many of them obsess over falling prices of their "investments".
 
P hit the nail on the head about the internet and its effect on slot car supply. P, you and I remember when any RTR 2E was a $500 item no matter how scuffed and worn it was. When the internet became an instant sellers market for all the kids that had one of these cars  the supply was plenty adequate to make the average price between $300 and $350 for a "nice" car. It is the exceptional item that commands the big price today.  
 
I am surprised that the average mag frame Cox car has held its value. I believe this to be because they are the preferred collector car to almost all slot car guys. Detail and model quality from Cox was pretty much above "most" every other  manufacturer, even if the chassis design left much to be desired.

[Cheater]

I will argue that older, common cars such as Fords have seen values fall as the age of collectors increases. Model Ts and As have had this happen...
 
I kid my buddies that cars like my '34 Vicky will be available in 10-15 years for 8-10 grand, since the number of potential buyers will fall by about 50%...

... It is the exceptional item that commands the big price today.

Matt, I don't think we hold vastly different opinions.

I agree that the average, common Model T and Model A has dropped in value, especially if one factors in the changing value of money over time.

But the exceptional Model As and Ts continue to bring strong prices... Model A Town Cars, two-door Phaetons, etc., and 1909 Ts, Town Cars, etc. '32 Ford open cars have certainly not dropped in value as best I can tell. Move over to the rarer cars like Stanley Steamers, Mercers, Stutzes, early Pierce Arrows, Loziers, etc., and values are today as strong as they've ever been.

[MattD]

Greg, the funny thing about 32 open cars always gaining in value is there are probably more on the road today than Henry made in 1932!

A metal 32 Ford may always top the Ford list due to such low production for that single design.    It is the choice cars that will continue to demand money and cars like yours remain as "original" and not restored with new parts, but genuine Ford and that is a premium for an A model.

 

The value of the "toys" we collect and play with is relative to what our personal resources are.  What is a lot for me is nothing for Jay Leno.   What a MIB 2E is worth to someone that can spend 5-6 thou on it is probably the same as $30 Cox Lotus to lots of guys.  It is all relative.

[Mbloes]

IMO this commonly-held belief is at odds with what has happened (and is happening) in other collectible markets.

 

 

But Greg, I don't think a comparison to old cars is meaningful - slot cars are way more "niche".

 

Just anecdotally, I don't know anything about the crowd you run with, but in my crowd (work and social), literally NOBODY knows what slot cars are.  But I would bet they would at least peripherally be aware of the value and collectibility of full size cars.

 

And I understand that the "big three" or "big five" (Cox Chaparral xxx, Cox Cuc, etc. etc., etc.) will probably maintain their value over time.  I feel that these transcend their appeal as "just" slot cars and are (and will be) attractive to the general toy collector now, and in the future. But this is a pretty narrow selection compared to the broad spectrum of product that slot cars as WE know them encompass.

 

I've got more thoughts but I can't figure out how to get them on paper right now.  Stay tuned!